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staircase.ipynb
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| { | |
| "nbformat": 4, | |
| "nbformat_minor": 0, | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "colab": { | |
| "provenance": [], | |
| "authorship_tag": "ABX9TyNv3w0Sagj1PRZ2d9ZxKnZa", | |
| "include_colab_link": true | |
| }, | |
| "kernelspec": { | |
| "name": "python3", | |
| "display_name": "Python 3" | |
| }, | |
| "language_info": { | |
| "name": "python" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| "cells": [ | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "view-in-github", | |
| "colab_type": "text" | |
| }, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "<a href=\"https://colab.research.google.com/gist/cavedave/a11fa410a471b4fb50b656e76e3edbe0/staircase.ipynb\" target=\"_parent\"><img src=\"https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg\" alt=\"Open In Colab\"/></a>" | |
| ] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "lets make a staircase of denial gif and share the code\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "the idea is that between every el nino hot year people go 'look it hasnt gotten warmer in X years global warming is disproven. Checkmate now, king me'\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "And i want to make a way to easily show that warming continues inside the el nino cyscle and new record year is coming." | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "QpovhOROUzWI" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "## staircase" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "a1l5rz8vKgQW" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "I heard about the escalator of denial here and wanted to update it and make the code public https://skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=465\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "and this tweet also shows it https://x.com/RARohde/status/1614991656583041024\n", | |
| "\n" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "15WdK15XKh4T" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "hadcrut data https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/data/HadCRUT.5.0.2.0/download.html" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "QG8tIYGLKnfG" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "d69c314c" | |
| }, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "import pandas as pd\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "url = \"https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/data/HadCRUT.5.0.2.0/analysis/diagnostics/HadCRUT.5.0.2.0.analysis.summary_series.global.annual.csv\"\n", | |
| "df = pd.read_csv(url)\n", | |
| "display(df.head())" | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": null, | |
| "outputs": [] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "import numpy as np\n", | |
| "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", | |
| "import imageio\n", | |
| "from scipy.signal import argrelextrema\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "# rename columns\n", | |
| "df = df.rename(columns={'Time':'Year', 'Anomaly (deg C)':'Anomaly'})\n", | |
| "df.set_index('Year', inplace=True)\n", | |
| "ts = df['Anomaly']" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "017GpJsNLoBY" | |
| }, | |
| "execution_count": null, | |
| "outputs": [] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "markdown", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "# Make the years" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "srGGdU8cwj1Y" | |
| } | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "d69c314c" | |
| }, | |
| "source": [ | |
| "# 1) find every record‐breaking year ≥ 1980", | |
| "post80 = ts.where(ts.index >= 1980)", | |
| "current_max = -np.inf", | |
| "record_years = []", | |
| "record_values = []", | |
| "for yr, val in post80.items():", | |
| "if np.isnan(val):", | |
| "continue", | |
| "if val >= current_max:", | |
| "current_max = val", | |
| "record_years.append(yr)", | |
| "record_values.append(val)", | |
| "# 2) build ALL steps", | |
| "all_steps = [(s, e, y) for s, e, y in zip(record_years, record_years[1:], record_values)]", | |
| "# 3) filter to only multi‑year “flat” periods (>=3 yr)", | |
| "steps = [(s, e, y) for (s, e, y) in all_steps if (e - s) >= 3]", | |
| "# 4) pre‑compute limits & frame list", | |
| "xmin, xmax = ts.index.min(), ts.index.max()", | |
| "ymin, ymax = ts.min() - 0.1, ts.max() + 0.1", | |
| ], | |
| "execution_count": null, | |
| "outputs": [] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "import numpy as np\n", | |
| "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n", | |
| "import imageio\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "# …after loading df and computing ts, steps, xmin,xmax,ymin,ymax…\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "frame_files = []\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| "for year in ts.index:\n", | |
| " if year < 1980:\n", | |
| " continue\n", | |
| " fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8,5))\n", | |
| " ax.set_position([0.12, 0.15, 0.80, 0.75])\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 1) Zero line\n", | |
| " ax.axhline(0, color='black', linestyle='--', linewidth=1, alpha=0.1)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 2) full series\n", | |
| " ax.plot(ts.index, ts.values, color='lightgray', lw=1)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 3) staircase steps\n", | |
| " for s, e, y in steps:\n", | |
| " if e <= year:\n", | |
| " ax.hlines(y, s, e, lw=3, color='C0')\n", | |
| " elif s <= year < e:\n", | |
| " ax.hlines(y, s, year, lw=4, color='tomato')\n", | |
| " ax.text(\n", | |
| " year, y + 0.02,\n", | |
| " f\"No warming in {year - s} yr\",\n", | |
| " ha='right', va='bottom',\n", | |
| " color='tomato', fontsize=11, fontweight='bold'\n", | |
| " )\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 4) lock axes\n", | |
| " ax.set_xlim(xmin, xmax)\n", | |
| " ax.set_ylim(ymin, ymax)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 5) titles & labels\n", | |
| " ax.set_title(\n", | |
| " \"Staircase of Denial — “No warming in years”\\n\",\n", | |
| " loc='center', fontsize=16, fontweight='bold',\n", | |
| " y=0.94, pad=5\n", | |
| " )\n", | |
| " ax.set_xlabel('Year', fontsize=12)\n", | |
| " ax.set_ylabel('Temperature anomaly (°C)', fontsize=12)\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 6) source & notes\n", | |
| " ax.text(0.99, -0.1,\n", | |
| " \"Source: HadCRUT5 by @iamreddave\",\n", | |
| " ha='right', va='top',\n", | |
| " transform=ax.transAxes,\n", | |
| " fontsize=9, color='gray')\n", | |
| " ax.text(0.20, -0.1,\n", | |
| " \"Anomalies relative to 1961-1990\",\n", | |
| " ha='right', va='top',\n", | |
| " transform=ax.transAxes,\n", | |
| " fontsize=9, color='gray')\n", | |
| "\n", | |
| " # 7) save\n", | |
| " fname = f'frame_{year}.png'\n", | |
| " fig.savefig(fname, dpi=120)\n", | |
| " plt.close(fig)\n", | |
| " frame_files.append(fname)" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "id": "l76R5v5GujNI" | |
| }, | |
| "execution_count": null, | |
| "outputs": [] | |
| }, | |
| { | |
| "cell_type": "code", | |
| "source": [ | |
| "output_path = '/content/staircase_hadcrut5.gif'\n", | |
| "with imageio.get_writer(\n", | |
| " '/content/staircase_hadcrut5.gif',\n", | |
| " mode='I',\n", | |
| " fps=7\n", | |
| ") as writer:\n", | |
| " for fn in frame_files:\n", | |
| " writer.append_data(imageio.imread(fn))" | |
| ], | |
| "metadata": { | |
| "colab": { | |
| "base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/" | |
| }, | |
| "id": "Jaq21m9jungW", | |
| "outputId": "45d77e7d-be05-4be7-d5db-58f0f846418b" | |
| }, | |
| "execution_count": null, | |
| "outputs": [ | |
| { | |
| "output_type": "stream", | |
| "name": "stderr", | |
| "text": [ | |
| "/tmp/ipython-input-53-3463716466.py:8: DeprecationWarning: Starting with ImageIO v3 the behavior of this function will switch to that of iio.v3.imread. To keep the current behavior (and make this warning disappear) use `import imageio.v2 as imageio` or call `imageio.v2.imread` directly.\n", | |
| " writer.append_data(imageio.imread(fn))\n" | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } | |
| ] | |
| } |
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