• The course will focus on survey artical:
  • journal of econ literature (JEL)
  • journal of econmic survey

• convergence: easy to catchup by imitaing existing techonology from other countries

• there are statistics system change dramatically in Vietnam and China (2003)

• absolute/relative convergence realates to the inclusion of country parameter into discussion

• conditional unconditional linear regression

  • conditional regression is E[y|x]

• homework

  • 3 outline of reading
    • simple, refer to the example
    • equation not the most important
  • outline of term paper (the question, the methodology)(preparing two or three topics)
  • term paper

• would discuss trump's tax cut later

• middle income trap represents policy choosing getting difficult
• middle income $1000~12000 per year per capita
• caught in the GNI for ~10 years
• cause
  • diminishing return to phsical capital
  • exhaustion of cheap labor and initation gain
  • labor quality not improve (Thailand and Malaysia spend less on science eduation that most east asians)
    • Philippines' labor problem is not lack of, but mismatch?
  • institution

• meta-analysis
  • compare regression result from different setout

- the definition of measure of corrupation is different from 
- adverse effect of corruction are more siginificant in LT growth in low income countries
- less averse in International Country Risk Guide corruption perceptions index
- less averse in 2SLS estimations: imply corruption is an endogenous variable
- PET-FAT: precision-effect and funnel-asymmetry tests
- PEESE: precision-effect estimation with standard errors
- LIC: low income countries
- MRA: meta-regression analysis 

- in institutional economics, the traditional view is that the state need to provide a framework of law and order
- strong state (capacity): can do but restrain itself
  - fisical: provide services and goods which cost less than private firms
  - legal: 
  - military
- pluralism may be a key in institutional economics:
  - usually depends on history
  - 
- different aspect of development and the trade-offs
- democracy
- decentralization
  - india and indonesia and US are example of decentralizatino regime
- public enterprize

- historically transmitted traits affect enocomic development
- persistent techonology and productivity performance: Neolithic advantage continuing
- persistent exist in population, not location
- genetic distance related to diffision of knowledge, but its relatedness decline in globalization
- China's fast development could be seen as follow HK's pattern
- the development focus changes in the area
  - *geography and history
    - directly affect productivity
    - indirectly through traits human capital social capital, institutions
    - through ancestral composition
    - as barrier prevent techonology spread
  - define time horizon for modern development analysis
  - factor of producation and technology
  - policy
  - institution

• GDP growth increase (while variace decrease)
  • 1960-1980: 3.5%
  • 1980-1900: 5%
  • 1990-2000: 6%
  • 2000-2010: 9%
• india's driving force for the 1980-2010 period are not export menufacturing, high saving rate, foreign capital inflow
• trade liberazation make high tech machine import possible, loosen regulation in firms make techonology diffuse easier
  • communication monopoly dissolved
• the service sector lead the growth, and export high tech service
• why not with fast growth employment? the growing service sector dont use much uneducated labor
• institution and education and agriculture productivity didnt improve much in the period
• 2 economy in india didnt relate in terms of growth

• largest economy before 1800
• 1978 reform trigger a boom growth
• the capacity in the government is strong even before the 1978 reform
• Schumpeter: static efficiency was neither nec- essary nor sufficient for long-run dynamism (1942, p. 83). It is equally true, however, that

• creative construction

• predictions

  • innovation lead growth came with high turnover rates for firms
  • small firms grow faster and break up earlier than bigger firms
  • democracy helps growth at frontier economies
  • long term techonology wave brings more turnover, inequility, initially lag
  • intense competetion, higher degree openess, focus on research education mostly helps frontier economies

• 08a presentation(Oct12)

• 09 paper presentation(Oct)_10 pages_simple questions

  • how to quantify corruption
  • internation aid and moral hazard
  • moral hazard and centralized-decentralize politics